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ResearchStability AI5d ago
Principled Thoughts for Latent Recursive LLM Systems
Large language models can reason in continuous space instead of decoded text, by recurring on their own hidden states or by passing those states between agents, while training supervises only the Cross-Entropy (CE) of the final decoded answer and does not constrain the thought. Theoretical and empirical analyses establish and confirm four failures of CE-only training that lead to a lower probability of the correct answer such as collapsing thoughts across distinct questions and retaining irrelevant information. We introduce REST (REpresentation-Supervised Thoughts), a training objective that turns four properties of a valid thought representation (causality, minimality, separability, and stability) into differentiable losses added to CE. We instantiate it in latent single-agent and multi-agent systems, without architectural changes or added parameters at inference. Across 7 benchmarks spanning mathematics, science, medicine, and code generation, with the same training data, compute, and latent budget, REST increases accuracy over CE-only training across agent settings and model sizes by up to 7.5 percentage points and convergence on a final answer by 30\%. Furthermore, REST thoughts encode more of what is required to achieve the correct answer, and decoding them better recovers the intended output of the agent, which makes latent communication easier to interpret. Project Website: https://fard-lab.github.io/REST
How Reproducible Are Evaluation Conclusions? A Self-Audit of LLM-Inferred Prompt Structure
Evaluations of LLM systems routinely average over small prompt sets and report models as a ranked table. We ask how much confidence such a table deserves, using LLM-based prompt-structure inference as the case study: eight open model variants across five families and 8B to 675B parameters, caching disabled, 293 raw intermediate representations persisted. The measured phenomenon is unstable to begin with. Identical calls do not reliably recover identical structure, with mean node-set Jaccard from 0.39 to 0.96 and 72% of prompt-model cells never node-set-perfect. Auditing the evaluation weakens its conclusions further, and this is our main contribution. Under a joint cluster bootstrap over prompts, only the bottom of the ranking is firm: the two least reproducible models hold rank in 99% and 86% of replicates, the middle four in 27% to 48%, and the top two in 68% each, so the table identifies the worst model reliably but does not reliably identify the best. Two equally defensible rules for merging repeated campaigns change four of eight rows and move the study-wide headline by 7 percentage points. Checking the inferred structure against ground-truth annotations shows reproducibility cannot be read as accuracy. And four of the eight endpoints were withdrawn within ten weeks of measurement, so the study as specified can no longer be run. Small-sample LLM evaluations can therefore look far more definitive than their evidence supports. We recommend reporting rank stability, per-cell provenance, executed sensitivity comparisons, raw per-run outputs, and a measurement date alongside any ranking.
FLEET: From Logits Entropy to Enhanced Trajectories in Text Generation
Solutions based on large language models (LLMs) often rely on temperature sampling to improve accuracy and stability by aggregating multiple samples from the completion distribution. However, this memoryless approach is inherently suboptimal: because it lacks awareness of prior generations and their evaluations, it produces an increasing proportion of semantically duplicate answers as more samples are drawn, leading to diminishing returns. To address this limitation, we introduce FLEET, a novel method that integrates a memory mechanism into the generation process. FLEET represents each generation as a sparse trajectory through states whose entropy exceeds a predefined threshold and uses these trajectories to infer per-token utility scores that adjust the logits. Benchmark evaluations demonstrate that FLEET achieves the same accuracy as the repeated sampling baseline, with a 3x speedup, and substantially improves accuracy on complex coding tasks (LiveCodeBench Pass@32 increases from 59.9% to 66.2%) under the same budget. Furthermore, in the greedy-decoding configuration evaluated here, the approach is deterministic and uses a single calibration pass to derive its principal hyperparameters, requiring only minimal modifications to existing LLM pipelines.
HypoEvolve: Genetic Algorithms Enable Multi-Agent LLMs to Discover Scientific Hypotheses
Scientific agents contribute to hypothesis discovery by synthesizing evidence, assessing proposals, and developing new explanations. Recent systems combine scientific agents with evolutionary search through critique, comparison, and revision. However, how different forms of agent collaboration affect hypothesis quality remains an open question. Answering this question requires separating the effects of agents' scientific capabilities from those of their collaboration. A framework must therefore preserve agents' scientific roles and support rules for combining, revising, and retaining hypotheses. Building on this view, we introduce HypoEvolve, which makes collaboration explicit through successive updates to a hypothesis population. Specifically, we propose a generational genetic algorithm to coordinate specialized large language model (LLM) agents that integrate mechanistic arguments, reconsider assumptions, and assess evidence and testability. Each generation specifies how scientific judgments and new proposals reshape the population, making collaboration effects on hypothesis quality directly testable. Moreover, we design our evaluation around scientifically meaningful hypotheses that explain how a proposed intervention could work. Drug repurposing links these explanations to target-level biological claims assessed against external evidence. Specifically, we adapt DepMap and Open Targets into complementary external measures grounded in experimental, genetic, and clinical evidence. Across 34 cancer types, HypoEvolve achieves the highest scores against six baselines on both measures. DepMap selectivity reaches 0.171, versus 0.115 for the strongest baseline. Gains over single-pass generation also generalize to held-out cancer types. HypoEvolve advances a vision of autonomous science in which AI research teams achieve a capacity for discovery beyond that of individual models.
ResearchStability AI4w ago
What LLM Trading Agents Actually Do in Production: A Six-Month, Population-Scale Record from Two Fleets
We present a continuous, population-scale measurement record of autonomous language-model trading agents operating in production across two systems with one design lineage: DX Terminal Pro (3,505 user-funded vaults trading real ETH in Base memecoin markets for 21 days, February to March 2026) and the DXAP live alpha fleet (500 to 599 user-created agents all-history, 91 to 117 concurrently active, trading Hyperliquid perpetuals, June to August 2026). The record spans roughly six months, 7.5M single-model invocations with about 300K onchain actions, and a further 231,638 multi-tool turns producing 14,596 fills. Four findings carry the paper. First, the operating layer determines behavior more than anything written in strategy text: a risk slider explains leverage (+0.425 per level), agent fixed effects absorb 60% of variance, and a leaderboard render boundary causally routes selection (regression discontinuity 1.75x at the top-3 cut). Second, sizing is volatility-blind: median leverage is 5.0x in every volatility sextile, and one posture-slider cell (11% of the book) holds 62% of liquidations. Third, agents capture almost none of the upside they reach: 43.2% of positions saw at least +300 bps of favorable excursion within 24h, yet 49.3% of those closed with a negative trade return; a mechanical bracket recovers +39.0 bps per position. Fourth, neither fleet shows a directional edge. The DXAP fleet is not profitable and trails a matched Hyperliquid retail benchmark (41% vs. 50% roundtrip win rate). A paired-replay league of frontier models on 416 captured production scenarios finds decision quality statistically indistinguishable at this horizon, while choice stability differs sharply across model families. Every headline survives day-clustered inference, permutation nulls, and a common-fee restatement; the paper closes with a 17-rule methodology canon bought with our own retractions.
Principled Thoughts for Latent Recursive LLM Systems
Large language models can reason in continuous space instead of decoded text, by recurring on their own hidden states or by passing those states between agents, while training supervises only the Cross-Entropy (CE) of the final decoded answer and does not constrain the thought. Theoretical and empirical analyses establish and confirm four failures of CE-only training that lead to a lower probability of the correct answer such as collapsing thoughts across distinct questions and retaining irrelevant information. We introduce REST (REpresentation-Supervised Thoughts), a training objective that turns four properties of a valid thought representation (causality, minimality, separability, and stability) into differentiable losses added to CE. We instantiate it in latent single-agent and multi-agent systems, without architectural changes or added parameters at inference. Across 7 benchmarks spanning mathematics, science, medicine, and code generation, with the same training data, compute, and latent budget, REST increases accuracy over CE-only training across agent settings and model sizes by up to 7.5 percentage points and convergence on a final answer by 30\%. Furthermore, REST thoughts encode more of what is required to achieve the correct answer, and decoding them better recovers the intended output of the agent, which makes latent communication easier to interpret. Project Website: https://fard-lab.github.io/REST
How Reproducible Are Evaluation Conclusions? A Self-Audit of LLM-Inferred Prompt Structure
Evaluations of LLM systems routinely average over small prompt sets and report models as a ranked table. We ask how much confidence such a table deserves, using LLM-based prompt-structure inference as the case study: eight open model variants across five families and 8B to 675B parameters, caching disabled, 293 raw intermediate representations persisted. The measured phenomenon is unstable to begin with. Identical calls do not reliably recover identical structure, with mean node-set Jaccard from 0.39 to 0.96 and 72% of prompt-model cells never node-set-perfect. Auditing the evaluation weakens its conclusions further, and this is our main contribution. Under a joint cluster bootstrap over prompts, only the bottom of the ranking is firm: the two least reproducible models hold rank in 99% and 86% of replicates, the middle four in 27% to 48%, and the top two in 68% each, so the table identifies the worst model reliably but does not reliably identify the best. Two equally defensible rules for merging repeated campaigns change four of eight rows and move the study-wide headline by 7 percentage points. Checking the inferred structure against ground-truth annotations shows reproducibility cannot be read as accuracy. And four of the eight endpoints were withdrawn within ten weeks of measurement, so the study as specified can no longer be run. Small-sample LLM evaluations can therefore look far more definitive than their evidence supports. We recommend reporting rank stability, per-cell provenance, executed sensitivity comparisons, raw per-run outputs, and a measurement date alongside any ranking.
FLEET: From Logits Entropy to Enhanced Trajectories in Text Generation
Solutions based on large language models (LLMs) often rely on temperature sampling to improve accuracy and stability by aggregating multiple samples from the completion distribution. However, this memoryless approach is inherently suboptimal: because it lacks awareness of prior generations and their evaluations, it produces an increasing proportion of semantically duplicate answers as more samples are drawn, leading to diminishing returns. To address this limitation, we introduce FLEET, a novel method that integrates a memory mechanism into the generation process. FLEET represents each generation as a sparse trajectory through states whose entropy exceeds a predefined threshold and uses these trajectories to infer per-token utility scores that adjust the logits. Benchmark evaluations demonstrate that FLEET achieves the same accuracy as the repeated sampling baseline, with a 3x speedup, and substantially improves accuracy on complex coding tasks (LiveCodeBench Pass@32 increases from 59.9% to 66.2%) under the same budget. Furthermore, in the greedy-decoding configuration evaluated here, the approach is deterministic and uses a single calibration pass to derive its principal hyperparameters, requiring only minimal modifications to existing LLM pipelines.
HypoEvolve: Genetic Algorithms Enable Multi-Agent LLMs to Discover Scientific Hypotheses
Scientific agents contribute to hypothesis discovery by synthesizing evidence, assessing proposals, and developing new explanations. Recent systems combine scientific agents with evolutionary search through critique, comparison, and revision. However, how different forms of agent collaboration affect hypothesis quality remains an open question. Answering this question requires separating the effects of agents' scientific capabilities from those of their collaboration. A framework must therefore preserve agents' scientific roles and support rules for combining, revising, and retaining hypotheses. Building on this view, we introduce HypoEvolve, which makes collaboration explicit through successive updates to a hypothesis population. Specifically, we propose a generational genetic algorithm to coordinate specialized large language model (LLM) agents that integrate mechanistic arguments, reconsider assumptions, and assess evidence and testability. Each generation specifies how scientific judgments and new proposals reshape the population, making collaboration effects on hypothesis quality directly testable. Moreover, we design our evaluation around scientifically meaningful hypotheses that explain how a proposed intervention could work. Drug repurposing links these explanations to target-level biological claims assessed against external evidence. Specifically, we adapt DepMap and Open Targets into complementary external measures grounded in experimental, genetic, and clinical evidence. Across 34 cancer types, HypoEvolve achieves the highest scores against six baselines on both measures. DepMap selectivity reaches 0.171, versus 0.115 for the strongest baseline. Gains over single-pass generation also generalize to held-out cancer types. HypoEvolve advances a vision of autonomous science in which AI research teams achieve a capacity for discovery beyond that of individual models.
What LLM Trading Agents Actually Do in Production: A Six-Month, Population-Scale Record from Two Fleets
We present a continuous, population-scale measurement record of autonomous language-model trading agents operating in production across two systems with one design lineage: DX Terminal Pro (3,505 user-funded vaults trading real ETH in Base memecoin markets for 21 days, February to March 2026) and the DXAP live alpha fleet (500 to 599 user-created agents all-history, 91 to 117 concurrently active, trading Hyperliquid perpetuals, June to August 2026). The record spans roughly six months, 7.5M single-model invocations with about 300K onchain actions, and a further 231,638 multi-tool turns producing 14,596 fills. Four findings carry the paper. First, the operating layer determines behavior more than anything written in strategy text: a risk slider explains leverage (+0.425 per level), agent fixed effects absorb 60% of variance, and a leaderboard render boundary causally routes selection (regression discontinuity 1.75x at the top-3 cut). Second, sizing is volatility-blind: median leverage is 5.0x in every volatility sextile, and one posture-slider cell (11% of the book) holds 62% of liquidations. Third, agents capture almost none of the upside they reach: 43.2% of positions saw at least +300 bps of favorable excursion within 24h, yet 49.3% of those closed with a negative trade return; a mechanical bracket recovers +39.0 bps per position. Fourth, neither fleet shows a directional edge. The DXAP fleet is not profitable and trails a matched Hyperliquid retail benchmark (41% vs. 50% roundtrip win rate). A paired-replay league of frontier models on 416 captured production scenarios finds decision quality statistically indistinguishable at this horizon, while choice stability differs sharply across model families. Every headline survives day-clustered inference, permutation nulls, and a common-fee restatement; the paper closes with a 17-rule methodology canon bought with our own retractions.
The Mechanics of Democratic Dominance: A System Dynamics Paradigm for Dynamic Consent Engineering
Traditional frameworks of political communication operate under linear, event-driven assumptions that treat voter persuasion as a static, transactional function. This paper introduces Dynamic Consent Engineering (DCE), a novel interdisciplinary paradigm that synthesizes Edward Bernays' foundational principles of public relations with the S-E-E-D (Snowball, Equilibrium, Elasticity, Dominance) framework of system dynamics. By expanding Bernaysian operational constraints into a four-dimensional resource matrix (incorporating algorithmic media infrastructure alongside manpower, mindpower, and capital), we mathematically formalize how democratic institutions construct, optimize, and sustain political dominance. We map Bernays' classic eight-step engineering workflow directly onto non-linear feedback loops, information time lags, and demographic carrying capacities. Through rigorous modeling of systemic feedback structures, we isolate the dynamic root causes of political elasticity, policy resistance plateaus, and threshold-triggered trust collapses. Finally, we establish a four-step diagnostic pipeline and validate the framework via historical reference mode verification, demonstrating that long-term political stability depends not on ephemeral rhetoric, but on the structural synchronization of policy execution and dynamic feedback calibration.
Group-based reinforcement learning methods such as GRPO for large language models avoid training a critic by sampling multiple responses for each prompt. A reliable critic could instead estimate token-level advantages from one response, but standard critic-based training recipes are often unstable. We study this instability and develop **Best Practice Critic Optimization (BPCO)**, a recipe that combines DPPO, value predictions bounded to the reward range, Monte Carlo value targets, unnormalized policy advantages, and length-adaptive generalized advantage estimation. Because the critic is used only during training, BPCO can also condition it on reward-defining information, such as a reference answer or grading rubric, that is hidden from the policy. Controlled experiments isolate the effect of each design choice. Across mathematical reasoning tasks with models ranging from 1.5B parameters to 30B-A3B mixtures of experts, BPCO improves a strong critic-based baseline consistently, and matches or exceeds a group-based baseline while sampling one response per prompt. The same recipe also improves learning with rubric-based rewards. These results show that a carefully designed critic provides a reliable alternative to group-relative advantage estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/QPHutu/golden_critic.
What Does an Evaluation License? A Commit-Bound Census of Claim-Relative Inference in Inspect Evals
Evaluation artifacts specify a forward computation: a task, scorer, and reported metric. They do not necessarily license the claim attached to that metric because the historical evidence and alternative semantics needed to replay it may be unbound. We formalize this missing claim-replay layer through a frozen substrate D, a grounded family F, a claim query q, and the resulting identified set. We then census all 124 mechanically eligible Inspect Evals units at a pinned commit. Every unit receives a terminal disposition; 110 stop before deterministic inference because required historical evidence or semantic grounding is unavailable. Where execution closes, exact values, winners, complete orders, and pairwise relations separate by claim resolution and by primary versus review family. The audit therefore returns typed stops, instability witnesses, and stable substructure rather than forcing one evaluator meaning or one robust/not-robust label.
Beyond the Stability-Exploration Dilemma: Environmental Regularization for LLM Policy Optimization
Policy optimization (PO) for Large Language Models faces a stability--exploration trade-off, currently mediated by an action-side Policy-KL regularizer. This puts practitioners in a double bind: keeping Policy-KL constrains response behavior and consumes the action-side exploration budget, while dropping it leaves the optimization without an explicit drift control. We argue for an alternative that breaks the dilemma by moving regularization to the input side. As training progresses, the distribution over training queries induced by the current policy drifts unchecked from its pre-RL reference distribution.
Concretely, Environment-Regularized Policy Optimization (ERPO) introduces a Query-KL (QKL) term that bounds this query distribution shift, together with a dataset-static reference-derived per-query weight that biases each per-query update toward queries typical under the reference. The QKL gradient flows strictly through the query likelihood; the response score function used by policy-gradient estimators does not appear in the QKL term, so QKL exerts no direct gradient pressure on the response distribution---exploration is preserved. ERPO plugs into GRPO/PPO/REINFORCE-style pipelines without additional forward passes. On six mathematical reasoning benchmarks, ERPO replaces the standard Policy-KL regularizer while achieving effective control over query distribution drift, delivering stronger accuracy and substantially more stable behavior under high-temperature decoding and long-horizon training.Our source code are available at https://github.com/alibaba/ERPO
CoToGrasp: Contact-Topology-Conditioned Dexterous Grasp Synthesis via Canonical Workspace Learning
Current dexterous grasp planners primarily optimize for physical stability, focusing on whether an object can be grasped rather than how it should be grasped to support downstream functional tasks. However, conditioning grasp synthesis on specific human grasp taxonomies typically requires prohibitively expensive, object-annotated datasets. To address these limitations, we propose CoToGrasp, a novel generative framework that synthesizes diverse, stable grasps strictly conditioned on specific contact topologies. To bypass the data collection bottleneck, CoToGrasp is trained entirely in an object-agnostic manner. We introduce a feature-based canonical workspace that projects local object features into a unified gripper-centric domain, effectively decoupling the semantic functional intent from the arbitrary object geometry. By learning the intrinsic contact manifold of the gripper within this workspace, our model achieves zero-shot generalization to unseen objects at inference. Extensive evaluations on the large-scale DexGraspNet dataset demonstrate that CoToGrasp achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing taxonomy-guided planners. Finally, we demonstrate the physical viability and kinematic feasibility of our synthesized contact topologies on a physical robot platform. Code is available on our project website https://cea-list.github.io/cotograspweb/ .